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Market Context
April saw seasonal prices slide to their lowest levels in a year. Recession fears, expected EU storage target changes, and peace between Ukraine and Russia seemingly edging closer, all provided bearish pressure. The Winter 25 gas price dropped over 20% through the month as warm, sunny weather allowed storage injections to begin at pace.
- Peace talks continued throughout April with President Trump becoming frustrated with the slow progress. By the end of the month a minerals deal was signed between the US and Ukraine which was a prerequisite for any peace deal involving a US security guarantee. President Putin has stated he believes the situation is too complex to solve without direct talks between Russia and Ukraine.
- After 100-days of President Trump’s second term his sweeping trade tariffs continue to create macro-economic repercussions even though many of them were paused to allow for trade deal negotiations to take place.
- Global recession fears, because of the proposed tariffs, led to an expectation of reduced industrial demand and a weakening of the dollar which had a bearish impact on seasonal prices.
- Through April, the expected changes to EU mandated gas storage levels came closer to reality with most believing they will be implemented by mid-May again providing further downward pressure to the market.
- A warm, sunny April reduced pressure on storage allowing injections to begin at pace. April always has potential for cold weather and high demand, so this came as a relief to the market.
- EU aggregated gas storage started being filled at a good rate and is now around 35% full. The current trajectory is in line with 2022 when a strong injection season saw comfortable storage levels reached to manage the winter.
In other news
- Rebel Energy was the latest supplier to cease trading due to what their founder described as a “perfect storm” of rising wholesale costs together with the pressure of the cost-of-living crisis on customers. Around 10,000 businesses and 80,000 domestic properties will be impacted.
Seasonal Prices
Price Table
Prices dropped across the curve in April with spot gas prices reaching their lowest levels since September 24 and seasonal gas prices dropping to levels not seen in a year. Month-on-Month differences for seasonal and annual prices below are understated this month as the front season has moved from Summer 25 to Winter 25.
Month End Prices
Spot Prices
| Fuel | Apr-25 (p/kWh) | Mar-25 (p/kWh) | Month-on-Month Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 2.59 | 3.34 | -22% |
| Power (UK Baseload) | 7.50 | 8.79 | -15% |
Front Months
| Fuel | Apr-25 (p/kWh) | Mar-25 (p/kWh) | Month-on-Month Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 2.64 | 3.33 | -10% |
| Power (UK Baseload) | 7.00 | 8.63 | -19% |
Front Season
| Fuel | Apr-25 (p/kWh) | Mar-25 (p/kWh) | Month-on-Month Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 3.00 | 3.37 | -11% |
| Power (UK Baseload) | 8.05 | 8.21 | -2% |
Annual Price (Apr-25)
| Fuel | Apr-25 (p/kWh) | Mar-25 (p/kWh) | Month-on-Month Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 2.88 | 3.51 | -18% |
| Power (UK Baseload) | 7.41 | 8.57 | -13% |
Historical Comparison
| Fuel | 2019 Average Front Season Price (p/kWh) | % Increase to Apr-25 |
|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 1.64 | 83% |
| Power (UK Baseload) | 5.10 | 58% |
Outlook
The bullish summer outlook is slowly shifting as warmer weather and expected loosening of storage targets is leading to a more positive outlook. Prices for the remaining months of Summer 25 are now cheaper than Winter 25 contracts which should incentivize injections improving the storage position heading into winter.
Bearish Signals
- Potential positive outcome to Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
- Warmer weather expected to reduce residential demand.
- Expected loosening of storage targets.
Bullish Signals
- Low storage levels.
- Lower imports from Norway due to maintenance.
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